ゴールドスミス・ノートが気になる(7)

トンデモナイ金融の世界の誕生!


金細工師が顧客から仮に100億円預かったとして、単なる保管料だけもらっている従来の商売に飽き足らず、ある時からこれを顧客には知らせずに勝手に融資にまわしたとしたら預金量(融資量)はどういう推移を辿るだろうかということを考えてみたい?

もし、月利1%年利12%として全ての経費を7%でおさめ、自己資金が毎年5%づつ増えていったとしたら、世間に対する融資額はどのような展開となるか…【早見表】
とても興味が湧くので一覧表にしてみた。
結論からいえば、融資額は15年で倍増、融資額は100年で130倍となる。
年間5%の純増というのは飛んでもない世界の始まりなのだ、ということが明らかだ。

預金額 100億
融資額  90億(90%)
増加額 融資額の年5%

(初年度) 94億5000万円
( 2年目) 99億 225万円
( 3年目)104億1863万円
( 4年目)109億3956万円
( 5年目)114億8654万円
( 6年目)120億6086万円
( 7年目)126億6390万円
( 8年目)132億9710万円
( 9年目)139億6195万円
(10年目)146億6005万円→10年間で162.889%
(11年目)153億9305万円
(12年目)161億6270万円
(13年目)169億7084万円
(14年目)178億1938万円
(15年目)187億1035万円→15年で倍増する、しかも増えた分はすべて自己資金。

(10年後) 146億6005万円  ×1.628
(20年後) 238億6656万円   〃 
(30年後) 388億5476万円   〃
(40年後) 632億5555万円   〃
(50年後) 1029億8003万円   〃
(60年後) 1676億5150万円   〃
(70年後) 2729億3664万円   〃
(80年後) 4443億4086万円   〃
(90年後) 7233億8692万円   〃
(100年後)1兆1776億7391万円   〃→130倍を達成。

しかし、ちょっと待ってみよう。
ここには融資額の増加は自己資金の増加のみをカウントしているだけで、預金する顧客が増えていくことによる融資額の増加がいっさい考慮されていない。多くの領主や商工業者が金細工師に金貨を預けることによって何らかのメリットを享受していたとすれば、その評判はあっという間に広がってゆくことは当然であるから、黙っていても自分たちもそのメリットや信用を享受しようと金細工師への預金希望者は増えつづけ、年間20%とか30%の増加などは当り前のように推移したに違いない。
そうすると融資額が15年で倍増などというのは逆の意味で現実離れしており、現実に対して変動をスローに見積もり過ぎている可能性が大であり、実際は7年~10年で倍増してゆく展開をみせたものと考えたい。

※WordPressメモ タイトルが一箇所では不便を感じていたが、+マークのブロックを追加メニューの中に「見出し」というものがあり、追加できることを発見した。これはありがたいので、ブルーの文字にすることにした。次はメインタイトル扱いされている「ゴールドスミス・ノートが気になる(7)」の部分を文字を小さくして単なるシリーズ・テーマとしておきたいのだが、やり方が分からない。

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